East

Cleveland (1) vs. Detroit (8) – When your best player is putting up lines like 38p, 8a, 7r without even trying, when that’s just him working in the flow of the offense, you’re going to win a lot of games. Cleveland is going to win a lot of games in these playoffs. When your best player looks like he’s thinking about what team he’ll be playing for next year (Rasheed could not look less interested), you’re not going to win so many. I’ll be surprised if Detroit manages a single win in this series.

Boston (2) vs. Chicago (7) – A startling win even with the Celtics hurting, I have to admit. Anyone who follows the NBA knows that Rose is fantastic, but putting up a 36 and 12 in his first playoff game against the vaunted Celtics D is just ridiculous. KG or no KG, the Celts need to step it up. They can absolutely win one in Chicago … but now they’re in a situation where they not only have to win one away, but they know they can be beaten at home. Scary times for Boston.

Orlando (3) vs. Philly (6) – To echo the sentiments of Barkley and Webber: I don’t care if he can’t shoot free throws for shit, not giving the ball to Dwight Howard for the last five minutes of your games is ridiculous. I feel like Orlando could’ve won that game by just throwing lobs to Howard every possession. Instead they choked  away a gigantic lead, exposing the fact that their crunch-time performance is shakey at best. Rafer Alston is not a real substitute for Jameer Nelson.

Atlanta (4) vs. Heat (5) – I know the prevailing theory is “whichever team has the best player has a good chance of winning” and all that, but … Miami’s two through eight positions just aren’t talented enough. The Hawks have been suffocating Wade all year on defense, and daring the rest of the Heat to beat them, and the Heat have been unable to do it. Barring the refs completely bailing Wade out for four solid games — possible but not probable — I don’t see Miami being able to take this series, no matter how much the NBA would love “LeBron vs. Wade” in the second round.

West

Los Angeles (1) vs. Utah (8) – Utah has absolutely no shot. LA’s got an incredible mix of young athletes and savvy veterans, three capable point guards (even if Fisher and Farmar haven’t been great lately), one of the best players in basketball, and incredible home crowd, and the motivation of losing in the finals last year. Utah has a lot of talent, but their chemistry is horrific, they’re banged up, and they’re playing the best LA team since 2002. I think the refs give them one game in Salt Lake, but that’s it.

Denver (2) vs. New Orleans (7) – New Orleans does not have the depth to overcome Denver’s defense and overall firepower. Melo’s game last night was awful, but the other Nuggets stepped it up (particularly Billups, who has a history of such things). I’m sure the Hornets will take a game or two via Paul’s overall brilliance, but I don’t think he can win them the series singlehandedly. I think it’s very possible that the Nuggets will make the conference finals this year.

San Antonio (3) vs. Dallas (6) – It pains me to say it, as a big fan of San Antonio, but I think they’re too banged up to take this series. Dallas is coming into the playoffs playing really well, and proved they’re not the average six seed by taking game one from the Spurs in San Antonio. Terry’s been a late-game assassin all season, now that he doesn’t have to handle the ball as much. Dirk’s Dirk … he’s going to get you 20 and 8, give or take, and doesn’t have to worry about covering the scoring load at the end of games. I think there’s also a lot less pressure as a #6 than there would be as a higher seed (witness their chokes the last two seasons). Especially by stealing this win, they absolutely should be able to take out a hobbled San Antonio team that’s not in championship form. However, SA is one of those teams where you never want to count them out until they’re out.

Portland (4) vs. Houston (5) – I think Portland is up against a Houston team who are almost maniacally focused on getting out of the first round. I also think they’re playing nervous and very tight right now. The last game of the season, when they romped all over Denver, they were moving around the floor, making lots of passes, and finding the open man. Houston ground that all to a halt, forcing the Trailblazers into a lot of 1-on-1’s, which is not the way they’re going to win games. I think they’ll be much more competetive in game 2, but I think Houston’s huge desire to get to round two will end up giving them the series win. Portland’s a year or two away from being a real contender.

pic courtesy of NBA.com

Yep, that’s the stuff. The sweet, sweet taste of the New York Yankees sucking. See, I live in New York, but I spent my formative years in Massachusetts, and those are the years in which sports allegiances are formed (with the exception of college allegiances, but I only pay attention to college sports of any kind when SU men’s basketball is actually doing well in the tournament). As a result, my sports allegiances lie mostly with the New England region of the country, which has made it a pretty amazing decade thus far. Three championships and a fourth SuperBowl appearance for the Patriots, a championship for the Celtics, and two championships for the Red Sox (after an 86 year draught and a curse and blah blah blah, no less).

Now, granted, the Celtics essentially bought their championship, and the Red Sox have the second-highest payroll in baseball so it’s not like they were exactly a team full of scrappy underdogs … but it’s not like that’s uncommon in sports, either. Spending a crapload of money and assembling a power team for a couple of years is actually much more common than putting a team together through a combination of smart drafting, key free-agent signings, and an equal focus on stars and roleplayers, though that’s exactly how the Patriots did it. Also they cheated, but I don’t really care about that, since every team in every sport is doing all kinds of unethical crap in order to win. The Pats got caught, paid the price, and moved on (probably right back to videotaping signals).

I’m not one of those arrogant Boston fan jackasses who thinks we’re entitled to win things. I was actually quite happy to see the Colts win a SuperBowl, and I would love to see Phoenix get over the hump and win an NBA championship. I am aware that I root for “the bad guys” whenever I root for the Patriots, just as most Yankees fans are aware that their team is pretty much uniformly despised by everyone who is not, in fact, a Yankee fan. Winning does that to teams. No one hated the Patriots until they were good. No one cared. The Yankees have been the best overall team in sports for the past 100 years, and that’s why everyone hates them.

Anyway, the point of all this is that as a Boston fan, I take enormous pleasure in seeing the Yankees perform poorly. In fact, largely the only reason I pay any attention whatsoever to baseball during the regular season is to see whether or not the two teams are going to end up in the playoffs or not, and whether the Sox will have to go through them to get to the World Series. This year, it is very much looking like the Yankees will not get in at all, which makes me happy. In some ways, it makes me happier than the fact that the Red Sox probably will make the playoffs, which is a bit odd, but it’s true nonetheless.

Then again … perhaps it’s not a bit odd after all, because if there weren’t a lot of people who take malicious joy in the misfortunates of others then hey, I guess the term schadenfreude wouldn’t exist in the first place.