CerebralDebris

The NBA playoffs have started, which makes me happy. My wife is in France at the moment, so I was able to sports-nerd it up and watch at least part of every single opening game this weekend. My thoughts:

East

Cleveland (1) vs. Detroit (8) – When your best player is putting up lines like 38p, 8a, 7r without even trying, when that’s just him working in the flow of the offense, you’re going to win a lot of games. Cleveland is going to win a lot of games in these playoffs. When your best player looks like he’s thinking about what team he’ll be playing for next year (Rasheed could not look less interested), you’re not going to win so many. I’ll be surprised if Detroit manages a single win in this series.

Boston (2) vs. Chicago (7) – A startling win even with the Celtics hurting, I have to admit. Anyone who follows the NBA knows that Rose is fantastic, but putting up a 36 and 12 in his first playoff game against the vaunted Celtics D is just ridiculous. KG or no KG, the Celts need to step it up. They can absolutely win one in Chicago … but now they’re in a situation where they not only have to win one away, but they know they can be beaten at home. Scary times for Boston.

Orlando (3) vs. Philly (6) – To echo the sentiments of Barkley and Webber: I don’t care if he can’t shoot free throws for shit, not giving the ball to Dwight Howard for the last five minutes of your games is ridiculous. I feel like Orlando could’ve won that game by just throwing lobs to Howard every possession. Instead they choked  away a gigantic lead, exposing the fact that their crunch-time performance is shakey at best. Rafer Alston is not a real substitute for Jameer Nelson.

Atlanta (4) vs. Heat (5) – I know the prevailing theory is “whichever team has the best player has a good chance of winning” and all that, but … Miami’s two through eight positions just aren’t talented enough. The Hawks have been suffocating Wade all year on defense, and daring the rest of the Heat to beat them, and the Heat have been unable to do it. Barring the refs completely bailing Wade out for four solid games — possible but not probable — I don’t see Miami being able to take this series, no matter how much the NBA would love “LeBron vs. Wade” in the second round.

West

Los Angeles (1) vs. Utah (8) – Utah has absolutely no shot. LA’s got an incredible mix of young athletes and savvy veterans, three capable point guards (even if Fisher and Farmar haven’t been great lately), one of the best players in basketball, and incredible home crowd, and the motivation of losing in the finals last year. Utah has a lot of talent, but their chemistry is horrific, they’re banged up, and they’re playing the best LA team since 2002. I think the refs give them one game in Salt Lake, but that’s it.

Denver (2) vs. New Orleans (7) – New Orleans does not have the depth to overcome Denver’s defense and overall firepower. Melo’s game last night was awful, but the other Nuggets stepped it up (particularly Billups, who has a history of such things). I’m sure the Hornets will take a game or two via Paul’s overall brilliance, but I don’t think he can win them the series singlehandedly. I think it’s very possible that the Nuggets will make the conference finals this year.

San Antonio (3) vs. Dallas (6) – It pains me to say it, as a big fan of San Antonio, but I think they’re too banged up to take this series. Dallas is coming into the playoffs playing really well, and proved they’re not the average six seed by taking game one from the Spurs in San Antonio. Terry’s been a late-game assassin all season, now that he doesn’t have to handle the ball as much. Dirk’s Dirk … he’s going to get you 20 and 8, give or take, and doesn’t have to worry about covering the scoring load at the end of games. I think there’s also a lot less pressure as a #6 than there would be as a higher seed (witness their chokes the last two seasons). Especially by stealing this win, they absolutely should be able to take out a hobbled San Antonio team that’s not in championship form. However, SA is one of those teams where you never want to count them out until they’re out.

Portland (4) vs. Houston (5) – I think Portland is up against a Houston team who are almost maniacally focused on getting out of the first round. I also think they’re playing nervous and very tight right now. The last game of the season, when they romped all over Denver, they were moving around the floor, making lots of passes, and finding the open man. Houston ground that all to a halt, forcing the Trailblazers into a lot of 1-on-1’s, which is not the way they’re going to win games. I think they’ll be much more competetive in game 2, but I think Houston’s huge desire to get to round two will end up giving them the series win. Portland’s a year or two away from being a real contender.

pic courtesy of NBA.com